Identifying immunity gaps for measles using Belgian serial serology data.

Vaccine-preventable diseases, such as measles, have been re-emerging in countries with moderate to high vaccine uptake. It is increasingly important to identify and close immunity gaps and increase coverage of routine childhood vaccinations, including two doses of the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR). Here, we present a simple cohort model relying on a Bayesian approach to evaluate the evolution of measles seroprevalence in Belgium using the three most recent cross-sectional serological survey data collections (2002, 2006 and 2013) and information regarding vaccine properties. We find measles seroprevalence profiles to be similar for the different regions in Belgium. These profiles exhibit a drop in seroprevalence in birth cohorts that were offered vaccination at suboptimal coverages in the first years after routine vaccination has been started up. This immunity gap is observed across all cross-sectional survey years, although it is more pronounced in survey year 2013. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic could negatively impact the immunization coverage worldwide, thereby increasing the need for additional immunization programs in groups of children that are impacted by this. Therefore, it is now even more important to identify existing immunity gaps and to sustain and reach vaccine-derived measles immunity goals.

Stable HEV IgG seroprevalence in Belgium between 2006 and 2014.

Recent European studies suggest an emergence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection. We evaluated trends in birth cohort-specific HEV seroprevalence and regional differences in Belgium. HEV IgG seroprevalence was analysed on national serum banks (1579 and 2087 samples for 2006 and 2014, respectively. Hepatitis E virus antigen was tested on positive samples. Observed data were modelled using a generalized additive model with a complementary log-log link. No significant differences between birth cohorts or sexes were found. Modelling identified the individual's age and province as relevant factors. The probability of HEV seropositivity increases significantly with age. An estimated total of 434 819 (yearly rate of 54,352) (sero-)infections were found between 2006 and 2014. Overall, HEV IgG seroprevalences were 4.1% (64/1579, 95% CI 3.1-5.1) and 5.8% (121/2087, CI 4.8-6.9) in 2006 and 2014, respectively. Observed HEV antigen seroprevalence was 0.027% (1/3666) for the entire cohort. These results show stable HEV IgG seroprevalence in Belgium.

The value of seroprevalence data as surveillance tool for Lyme borreliosis in the general population: the experience of Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Serological surveillance, based on the measurement of the presence of specific antibodies in a given population, can be used in addition to traditional and routine disease surveillance methods. The added value of this has been largely documented for vaccine-preventable diseases, but to a lesser extent for vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of seroprevalence data as additional source of information on the epidemiology of Lyme borreliosis in Belgium. METHODS: In total, 3215 residual blood samples collected in 2013-2015 were analysed with Liaison® Borrelia IgG kit (DiaSorin S.p.A, Saluggia, Italy). Positive and equivocal results were further examined with immunoblotting (recomLine Borrelia IgG kit, Mikrogen, Neuried, Germany). Crude prevalence estimates of equivocal and seropositive results were calculated and further adjusted accounting for clustered sampling and standardized for age, sex and population per province, according to the Belgian population structure in 2014. The effect of age, sex and region on seropositivity was assessed using log-binomial regression. RESULTS: The overall weighted national seroprevalence for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, adjusted for clustered sampling, age, sex and province was 1.06% (95%CI 0.67-1.67). Although not statistically significant, the highest prevalences were observed in men and in those younger than 15 years or older than 59 years of age. At provincial level, the seroprevalence estimates do not follow the geographical distribution of tick bites and diagnoses of Lyme borreliosis as detected through other surveillance systems. CONCLUSIONS: Although the use of residual samples for seroprevalence estimates has several advantages, it seems to be a limited tool for serological surveillance of Lyme borreliosis in Belgium, other than follow-up of trends if repeated over time. A population-based sampling strategy might provide a more representative nationwide sample, but would be very time intensive and expensive. Seroprevalence studies within risk groups or risk areas in Belgium could provide a useful alternative approach to complement routine surveillance data of Lyme borreliosis.

The health and economic impact of acute gastroenteritis in Belgium, 2010-2014.

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) remains a common condition in both low- and high-income countries. In Belgium, however, there is currently a lack of information on the societal health and economic impact of AGE. We conducted a retrospective study using mortality and cause-of-death data, hospital data, primary care data, health interview survey data and other published data. We estimated the burden of illness during a 5-year period (2010-2014) in Belgium in terms of deaths, patients admitted to hospitals, patients consulting their general practitioner (GP) and cases occurring in the community. We further quantified the health impact in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the economic impact in terms of cost-of-illness estimates. We estimated 343 deaths, 27 707 hospitalised patients, 464 222 GP consultations and 10 058 741 episodes occurring in the community (0.91 cases/person) on average per year. AGE was associated with 11 855 DALYs per year (107 DALY per 100 000 persons). The economic burden was estimated to represent direct costs of €112 million, indirect costs of €927 million (90% of the total costs) and an average total cost of €103 per case and €94 per person. AGE results in a substantial health and economic impact in Belgium, justifying continued mitigation efforts.

Sample size calculation for estimating key epidemiological parameters using serological data and mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Our work was motivated by the need to, given serum availability and/or financial resources, decide on which samples to test in a serum bank for different pathogens. Simulation-based sample size calculations were performed to determine the age-based sampling structures and optimal allocation of a given number of samples for testing across various age groups best suited to estimate key epidemiological parameters (e.g., seroprevalence or force of infection) with acceptable precision levels in a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey. METHODS: Statistical and mathematical models and three age-based sampling structures (survey-based structure, population-based structure, uniform structure) were used. Our calculations are based on Belgian serological survey data collected in 2001-2003 where testing was done, amongst others, for the presence of Immunoglobulin G antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella, for which a national mass immunisation programme was introduced in 1985 in Belgium, and against varicella-zoster virus and parvovirus B19 for which the endemic equilibrium assumption is tenable in Belgium. RESULTS: The optimal age-based sampling structure to use in the sampling of a serological survey as well as the optimal allocation distribution varied depending on the epidemiological parameter of interest for a given infection and between infections. CONCLUSIONS: When estimating epidemiological parameters with acceptable levels of precision within the context of a single cross-sectional serological survey, attention should be given to the age-based sampling structure. Simulation-based sample size calculations in combination with mathematical modelling can be utilised for choosing the optimal allocation of a given number of samples over various age groups.

Low hepatitis C prevalence in Belgium: implications for treatment reimbursement and scale up.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence data of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are needed to estimate the budgetary impact of reimbursement of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). In Belgium, the restricted reimbursement criteria are mainly guided by regional seroprevalence estimates of 0.87% from 1993 to 1994. In this first Belgian nationwide HCV prevalence study, we set out to update the seroprevalence and prevalence of chronic HCV infection estimates in the Belgian general population in order to guide decisions on DAA reimbursement. METHODS: Residual sera were collected through clinical laboratories. We collected data on age, sex and district. HCV antibody status was determined with ELISA and confirmed with a line-immunoassay (LIA). In specimens with undetermined or positive LIA result, HCV viral load was measured. Specimens were classified seronegative, seropositive with resolved infection, indicative of chronic infection and with undetermined HCV status according to the test outcomes. Results were standardized for age, sex and population per district, and adjusted for clustered sampling. RESULTS: In total 3209 specimens, collected by 28 laboratories, were tested. HCV seropositivity in the Belgian general population was estimated to be 0.22% (95% CI: 0.09-0.54%), and prevalence of chronic HCV infection 0.12% (95% CI: 0.03-0.41). In individuals of 20 years and older, these estimates were 0.26% (95% CI: 0.10-0.64%) and 0.13% (95% CI: 0.04-0.43), respectively. Of the total estimated number of HCV seropositive individuals in Belgium, 66% were between 50 and 69 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of HCV seropositivity and chronic infection in the Belgian general population were low and comparable to many surrounding countries. These adjusted prevalences can help estimate the cost of reimbursement of DAAs and invite Belgian policy makers to accelerate the scaling up of reimbursement, giving all chronically infected HCV patients a more timely access to treatment.

Overview and evaluation of 15 years of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease surveillance in Belgium, 1998-2012.

BACKGROUND: In 1998, following the detection of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in the UK, Belgium installed a surveillance system for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). The objectives of this system were to identify vCJD cases and detect increases in CJD incidence. Diagnostic confirmation of CJD is based on autopsy after referral by neurologists. Reference centres perform autopsies and report to the surveillance system. The aim of this study was to assess whether the system met its objectives and to assess its acceptability. METHODS: For 1999-2010, we linked surveillance data with hospital discharge data. We calculated the proportion of CJD suspected patients who died in hospitals and were captured by the surveillance system. We surveyed stakeholders on knowledge of the surveillance system, referral practices and acceptability. We compared proportions using the chi-square test and investigated variables associated with capture using a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: On average 60 % of hospitalised patients who died with suspected CJD were captured by the surveillance system. This proportion did not significantly differ over the years (p = 0.1). The odds of capture significantly decreased with every 1 year increase in age (OR = 0.95, 95 % CI 0.92-0.98, p = 0.001). Eleven percent of surveyed neurologists would not refer suspect vCJD cases for autopsy, nor contact a reference centre for diagnostic support. Sixty-one percent of surveyed neurologists were not familiar with the surveillance system. Awareness of the existence of the system did not impact referral behaviour (p = 0.18). CJD and vCJD surveillance were considered important by the majority of stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Although 40 % of the suspect CJD cases were not referred for autopsy, our data suggest that the Belgian CJD surveillance system meets one of its main objectives: it can detect changes in CJD incidence. However, we do not have sufficient evidence to conclude that the system meets its second objective of detecting vCJD cases arising in Belgium. Although not well known, the system was considered acceptable by its stakeholders.

The hidden burden of trichinellosis in Vietnam: a postoutbreak epidemiological study.

A cross-sectional study was conducted in Muong Lat town (Thanh Hoa province, North Vietnam), following the confirmed diagnosis of trichinellosis in six patients from that town who had eaten hunted wild boar meat during the Vietnamese lunar year celebration. All inhabitants who declared to have eaten undercooked or raw wild boar meat at the celebration and showed at least one clinical symptom compatible with trichinellosis were included in the study and blood sampled. Anti-Trichinella IgG were determined by ELISA and Western Blot. Seropositive persons were given appropriate albendazole treatment and were followed up. A total of 100 inhabitants met the inclusion criteria. Among these, 30 (30%) had antibodies to Trichinella. Serologically confirmed cases had fever (90.0%), myalgia (86.7%), facial oedema (63.3%), diarrhoea (53.3%), and pain of the masseter muscles (43.3%). Eosinophilia was detected in 83.3% of these individuals. Clinical symptoms resolved in all patients during albendazole treatment. The results suggest that only a proportion of the trichinellosis cases had sought health care during the outbreak. There is a need to implement surveillance and better diagnosis for trichinellosis and to set up educational programs to prevent infection in North Vietnam.

Establishment and reinforcement of the national reference centers for human microbiology in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Microbiology reference laboratories are critical in the development of high-quality clinical and public health services. In Belgium, the reference laboratories performed their activities on a voluntary basis and lacked a legal status. METHODS: Pathogens or groups of pathogens necessitating a national reference center (NRC) were prioritized based on diagnostic and epidemiologic relevance. Terms of reference for each of these pathogens were developed. RESULTS: Recently, 40 NRCs for different pathogens or groups of pathogens have been installed in Belgium to fulfill the following core functions: offering reference diagnostics, collecting reference materials, sharing information and scientific advice, participating in national and international networks, collaborating with research workgroups, and contributing to surveillance activities. CONCLUSIONS: These NRCs are important focal points of the national and international network in public health microbiology.

Proof of principle: an HIV p24 microsphere immunoassay with potential application to HIV clinical diagnosis.

The measurement of CD4 counts and viral loads on a single instrument such as an affordable flow cytometer could considerably reduce the cost related to the follow-up of antiretroviral therapy in resource-poor settings. The aim of this study was to assess whether the HIV-1 p24 antigen could be measured using a microsphere-based flow cytometric (FC) assay and the experimental conditions necessary for processing plasma samples. A commercial anti-p24 antibody pair from Biomaric was used to develop a p24 microsphere immunoassay (MIA) using HIV culture supernatant as the source of antigen. The ultrasensitive Perkin Elmer enzyme immunoassay (EIA) served as a reference assay. Quantification of HIV p24 using the heat-mediated immune complex disruption format described for plasma samples was feasible using the Biomaric MIA and applicable to a broad range of HIV-1 Group M subtypes. The inclusion of a tyramide amplification step was successful and increased the fluorescence signal up to 3 logs as compared with the MIA without amplification. The analytical sensitivity of this ultrasensitive Biomaric assay reached 1 pg/mL, whereas the ultrasensitive Perkin Elmer EIA was sensitive to less than 0.17 pg/mL. Our data indicate, for the first time, that the principle of p24 detection using the heat-denatured ultrasensitive format can be applied to FC.

Evaluation of HIV-1 p24 antigenemia and level of CD8+CD38+ T cells as surrogate markers of HIV-1 RNA viral load in HIV-1-infected patients in Dakar, Senegal.

Alternative, affordable, and simple assays to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-poor settings are needed. We have evaluated and compared a heat-denatured (HD) HIV p24 amplified enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from Perkin-Elmer and CD38CD8 T-cell levels, determined by flow cytometry, for their capacity to predict viral load (VL) in HIV-1-infected patients from Senegal. Median fluorescence intensity (MFI) of CD38 expression on memory (CD45RO) CD8 T cells correlated better with RNA VL than HD p24 antigenemia (R = 0.576, P < 0.0001 vs R = 0.548, P < 0.0001). MFI of CD38 expression on memory CD8 T cells could predict detectable RNA VL (VL = 2.6 log10) with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 74%. A comparable sensitivity (89%) could be reached for HD p24 assay, but only to predict RNA VL of more than 5 logs, which might lead to unacceptable delays in clinical decision making. The clinical use of the HD p24 assay to monitor ART in Senegal would require more comparative data about the kinetics of p24 antigen and HIV RNA in peripheral blood as well as further evaluation regarding its sensitivity toward subtype A and CRF02. MFI of CD38 expression on memory CD8 T cells appeared to be a better alternative to monitor ART in HIV-infected patients from Senegal.